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PROPHETIC: Our 2014 story on Prof. Kelly’s warning
by Paul Kelly
His solution has been tried in the US, and has worked. He would triage the thousands
of SMEs that currently have large property loans. The viable ones would be given
a five-year “reprieve” during which repayments would be cut or paused.
Most, he said, would emerge unscathed, and the cost to the taxpayers would be minimal.
Unfortunately, he warns, politicians barely recognize the existence of small and
medium size enterpises, let alone bother about their problems: “They [SMEs] don’t
hold press conferences, they don’t give out free drink to journalists, they don’t
make political contributions.” But, as the Professor warned the Irish public:
“Most of you work there!”
In his prophetic 2014 lecture, Prof. Kelly warned that the crisis would hit when the
ECB’s Mario Draghi began to do a “stress test” on Irish banks. Draghi would demand
a cleanup of loan books, with borrowers forced into bankruptcy. But ECB enforcers may
have to wait in line:
While some are busy counting votes and doing Dáil deals, vulture funds like Goldman
Sachs, Cerberus and CarVal will be smashing in SME doors by the thousand, collecting
IOUs bought for a pittance from government-owned AIB and BoI .
Last week we contacted the larger parties and asked them to make SME survival, and
vulture-fund protection, an election issue. True to Professor Kelly’s prophesy, we
Only AAA/PBPA took us seriously. Bríd Smith pledged to act. And thanks also, Aengus
Ó Snodaigh (SF), for your support.
So now only the “New Left” have even a prayer of solving a crisis that Fine Gael,
Labour and Fianna Fáil are too dim or distant to recognise, much less tackle. That’s
why we need Bríd Smith in the Dáil. Let’s hope we elect fifty more like her.
That way, we’ll have someone on our side of the door, saving our jobs, when the goon
squads come calling.
THE PROFESSOR who predicted the housing bubble of 2008 has predicted an Irish small
business crash — and it’s already started to happen.
This site repeated his warning nearly two years ago. Just before the local elections
of May 2014, we said, “VOTE, and make your job the number one election issue.”
We explained that UCD’s Professor Morgan Kelly spotted something that economists,
politicians and journalists had ignored: Ireland’s greatest jobs providers — small
and medium sized businesses (SMEs) — were up to their necks in debt. His message:
“If they crash, thousands of jobs will go.”
“WE SAID it was going to be massive — and thanks to your readers, it was!”
That was the verdict from Paul Matthews, hero of the annual Dublin Taxidrivers Special
Children’s Outing (DTSCO). Rain was held at bay for most of the day. Thanks to a
special Garda Motorcycle Escort, and to Paddy Drac and other entertainers, a splendid
time was had by all. They started in Parnell Square, were seen off by the Lord Mayor
on O’Connell Bridge, and spend the day at the special all-day disco in Leopardstown,
with plenty to eat and drink.
For full picture coverage of this happy event, don’t forget to pick up a copy of
Local News, South or West editions, on the street from about September 28 onwards.
Many of our readers responded to the DTSCO appeal for spot-prizes and gifts — and
of course hundreds of volunteers, some from the taxi world, some not, helped out
on the day.
“A very big thanks to all of you: we couldn’t have done it without your help,” Mr
Mathews told Local News.
You can see the terrifying detail of how and when this will happen by listening to
the Professor’s UCD lecture, which you can find » here on YouTube.
The good news is that Professor Kelly also tells us how to stop this catastrophe.