PROPHETIC: Our 2014 story on Prof. Kelly’s warning
You can see the terrifying detail of how and when this will happen by listening to
the Professor’s UCD lecture, which you can find » here on YouTube.
The good news is that Professor Kelly also tells us how to stop this catastrophe.
by Paul Kelly
His solution has been tried in the US, and has worked. He would triage the thousands
of SMEs that currently have large property loans. The viable ones would be given
a five-year “reprieve” during which repayments would be cut or paused.
Most, he said, would emerge unscathed, and the cost to the taxpayers would be minimal.
Unfortunately, he warns, politicians barely recognize the existence of small and
medium size enterpises, let alone bother about their problems: “They [SMEs] don’t
hold press conferences, they don’t give out free drink to journalists, they don’t
make political contributions.” But, as the Professor warned the Irish public:
“Most of you work there!”
In his prophetic 2014 lecture, Prof. Kelly warned that the crisis would hit
when the ECB’s Mario Draghi began to do a “stress test” on Irish banks. Draghi
would demand a cleanup of loan books, with borrowers forced into bankruptcy.
But ECB enforcers may have to wait in line:
While some are busy counting votes and doing Dáil deals, vulture funds like Goldman
Sachs, Cerberus and CarVal will be smashing in SME doors by the thousand, collecting
IOUs bought for a pittance from government-owned AIB and BoI .
Last week we contacted the larger parties and asked them to make SME survival, and
vulture-fund protection, an election issue. True to Professor Kelly’s prophesy, we
Only AAA/PBPA took us seriously. Bríd Smith pledged to act. And thanks also, Aengus
Ó Snodaigh (SF), for your support.
So now only the “New Left” have even a prayer of solving a crisis that Fine Gael,
Labour and Fianna Fáil are too dim or distant to recognise, much less tackle. That’s
why we need Bríd Smith in the Dáil. Let’s hope we elect fifty more like her.
That way, we’ll have someone on our side of the door, saving our jobs, when the goon
squads come calling.
THE PROFESSOR who predicted the housing bubble of 2008 has predicted an Irish small
business crash — and it’s already started to happen.
This site repeated his warning nearly two years ago. Just before the local elections
of May 2014, we said, “VOTE, and make your job the number one election issue.”
We explained that UCD’s Professor Morgan Kelly spotted something that economists,
politicians and journalists had ignored: Ireland’s greatest jobs providers — small
and medium sized businesses (SMEs) — were up to their necks in debt. His message:
“If they crash, thousands of jobs will go.”
• Left: “B”, currently part of the pitch, will be built over, leaving the children with
“C”. Right: full plan. (We apologise for the omission of the aerial picture from
our North Christmas edition)
IT WILL BE a blessing for the old folks of Finglas: 80 specially-fitted apartments,
wonderful landscaping, and ready access to nearby parks, shops and cafés.
Home-hungry buyers will be glad too, with 18 apartments on offer, singles to 3-bedroomed.
All in Glasanaon Road — just 3 miles from the city centre.
But the losers? The sports-mad schoolchildren of adjacent Gaelscoil Uí Earcáin.
Currently, the school and its large GAA pitch sit on a site of just under 3 hectares
(7½ acres) bounded on the south by Glasanaon Road, Finglas. (The perimeter is completed
by Glasanaon Park, Ferndale Avenue and then School Road.)
As our aerial view shows, the school building, “A”, sits to the east, adjacent to
the tiny through-way, Glasanaon Park. But more than two thirds of the site is currently
occupied by a giant green playing area.
It is used largely for GAA football but the pitch proper occupies less than a hectare:
the school also offers the same again in green space, shared by all of the Gaelscoil’s
250-plus pupils, ranging in age from 5 or 6 to about 11.
This open space — a relative rarity for anywhere in Dublin City these days — is shown
as “B” and “C” in our aerial photo, and comes to a total of over 2 hectares (5¼ acres).
But as and from the next academic year (2017/18), pupils and teachers may have to
say goodbye to all of “B”, leaving them with just “C”. The developers are moving
Currently, the owners of the site are looking for planning permission. This will
see them taking back a massive portion of the current play area — about two thirds
of it. And what can Principal Leah Ní Mhaoláin do about it? Nothing much.
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